DATA INSIGHT: The state of European sports betting [Part 2]

In the fast-paced and ever-evolving world of iGaming, strategic acumen reigns supreme. The European continent, although a regulatory kaleidoscope of its kind, represents a lucrative environment that sets the benchmark in terms of its stable and consistent year-on-year growth in gambling market revenue.

Besides the expectations for the old continent to reach an impressive €134 bn in gambling market revenue by 2027, a leap of nearly 33% compared to the €100.8 bn from 2019, as reported by the EGBA (European Gaming and Betting Association), the data on gross win in the industry specifically for the EU27 region, is also expected to record notable figures.

According to H2 Gambling Capital, considering both the land-based and online sector, by 2027, only the betting vertical’s gross win is forecasted to grow by an impressive 66%, significantly exceeding the figure of 2019. The first place is still reserved for Casino with a growth estimation of 68.5%, or a leap from €12.4 bn to €20.9 bn of gross win. For the same period, a somewhat lower increase in Gaming is expected for Bingo, Lotteries and lastly, Gaming machines, only segment noting a dip of 12.8%, or put in numbers, decrease from €23.5 bn to €20.5 bn gross win.


Looking at the figures from the land-based sector separately, the growth trend in gross win does not have a particular exponentiality, but is fairly constant in the estimate until 2027. The primacy in this sector is held by Bingo, with an estimated gross win growth of 8.3%, seen from 2019 to 2027, followed immediately by Casino with 8% and Lotteries with 7.5%. The gross win of the Betting vertical, including Sports and Horce Racing, is predicted to see a growth of 1.5% or from €6.8 bn to rise to €6.9 bn. According to forecasts, Gaming machines will face a drop of 13% percent in gross win or change from €23.2 bn in the pre-pandemic period to €20.2 bn by 2027. While the brick-and-mortars may be experiencing slower growth compared to the online, they still maintain a significant presence, attracting and retaining a specific portion of the players.


On the other hand, the shift towards the online has become increasingly evident in recent years. Considering multiple factors such as the internet penetration rate on a global scale, technology advancements and convenience offered by online platforms have played a significant role in this transition. With the growth of this sector, grows the opportunity for operators to leverage data analytics and gain insights of the players’ behaviour and preferences and deliver tailored solutions that will enhance player satisfaction, acquisition, and retention.

The online gross win on the European continent is expected to skyrocket by 2027, noting major leaps across all verticals. Besides EGBA’s projections for betting becoming the industry’s largest vertical by 2027, the expected gross win forecasted by H2 Gambling Capital underline a gross win growth of over 123% by the same year, compared to 2019. For the same period, Lotteries are predicted to exceed triple of the gross win with 210.7%, Casino to note an increase of 149% and Skill Gaming of 100%. Poker is expected to have the least growth of 27% in gross win due to multiple factors including shifting player preferences, competitive landscape, regulatory challenges, and others.


With legal and regulatory frameworks playing a key role, the European betting and gambling market has faced a tightening of the legislation belt with governments introducing local rule sets for the online market, aiming to capitalize from the rapidly growing industry. Taking in account strict local regulations, besides onshore operations, operators take advantage of the offshore jurisdictions with more lenient or favourable regulatory frameworks, greater access to the global market, tax advantages and flexible business environment to gain competitive advantage, besides the potential risks and challenges involved.
In terms of gross win of the onshore online market, the forecasts for the nearing 2027 seem quite promising. Only the Betting vertical, including Sports and Horse Racing is expected to reach €16 bn in less than 4 years from now, increasing 158% from the €6.2 bn in 2019. The projections for Casino are estimated to a leap of over 307% for the same period, followed by State Lotteries with almost 270%, Bingo with 167% and Poker with 83.3%.


Regarding the offshore online figures, Betting, Casino and Poker are forecasted to a drop in the gross win in the comparison between 2019 and 2027, varying from 19% in Betting, 29% in Casino and 50% in Poker. According to H2 Gambling Capital, Skill Gaming and Lotteries will note a spike in the offshore online gross win with Skill noting 100% increase and Lotteries around 50%. Bingo is the only sector likely to remain with a constant gross win of 400 million euros.


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